Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
